India–Bangladesh Relations at a Strategic Crossroads: Political Recalibration, Geopolitical Competition, and Strategic Interdependence after the BNP’s Return to Power
ABSTRACT
India–Bangladesh relations constitute one of the most strategically significant bilateral partnerships in South Asia, shaped by historical solidarity, geographical proximity, economic interdependence, and expanding political and security cooperation. Since the emergence of Bangladesh as an independent state in 1971, bilateral engagement has evolved across multiple sectors, including trade, connectivity, energy collaboration, border governance, and regional diplomacy. However, the return of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power in 2026 marks an important phase in bilateral relations, generating renewed discussions regarding diplomatic priorities, strategic orientation, and regional alignments.
This study examines the evolving trajectory of India–Bangladesh relations in the context of Bangladesh’s domestic political transition and analyses the strategic implications of the BNP’s return to power. Particular attention is devoted to major challenges such as the Teesta River water-sharing dispute, border governance and migration concerns, security cooperation, and the expanding influence of China and other extra-regional actors in South Asia. Simultaneously, the study explores emerging opportunities arising from economic interdependence, regional connectivity initiatives, and shared security interests.
The research adopts a mixed-method explanatory approach based on official policy documents, government statements, trade reports, scholarly literature, and survey-based perception analysis. Drawing upon the theoretical perspectives of Neorealism and Complex Interdependence, the study argues that despite political recalibration and growing geopolitical competition, structural interdependence and mutual strategic interests are likely to sustain pragmatic engagement between India and Bangladesh. The study concludes that the future trajectory of bilateral relations will depend upon diplomatic adaptability, cooperative regionalism, and the effective management of unresolved strategic and political concerns.
Keywords: India–Bangladesh Relations; BNP; Strategic Recalibration; Regional Security; China Factor; South Asian Geopolitics; Bilateral Diplomacy.
"India–Bangladesh Relations at a Strategic Crossroads: Political Recalibration, Geopolitical Competition, and Strategic Interdependence after the BNP’s Return to Power", JETNR - JOURNAL OF EMERGING TRENDS AND NOVEL RESEARCH (www.JETNR.org), ISSN:2984-9276, Vol.4, Issue 6, page no.a260-a282, June-2026, Available :https://rjpn.org/JETNR/papers/JETNR2606038.pdf
Volume 4
Issue 6,
June-2026
Pages : a260-a282
Paper Reg. ID: JETNR_234981
Published Paper Id: JETNR2606038
Downloads: 00071
Research Area: Arts1 All
Country: Jammu, Jammu and Kashmir, India
ISSN: 2984-9276 | IMPACT FACTOR: 9.87 Calculated By Google Scholar | ESTD YEAR: 2023
An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 9.87 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator
Publisher: RJPN (IJPublication) Janvi Wave
