Probabilistic Scoring of Water Stress A District-Level Analysis of Tamil Nadu’s Hydrological Challenges
: Water Stress — Tamil Nadu — Chennai — Cauvery Basin — Palar River — Vaigai — groundwater depletion — Pandya Zone — Random Forest model — WRI Aqueduct — climate change — district-level analysis — North-East Monsoon
Tamil Nadu, India's s most populous state with about 79 million residents, faces a deepening, geographically uneven water crisis. This stems from heavy reliance on the erratic North-East monsoon, disputes over the Cauvery river with Karnataka, and surging urban-industrial demand. Spanning the Eastern Ghats and Coromandel Coast, the state shows sharp divides: the southern Pandya heartland (Ramanathapuram, Virudhunagar, Sivaganga, Dindigul, Madurai) suffers extreme high water stress, with withdrawal-to-supply ratios over 80%—Ramanathapuram hits a dire 91.8%. In contrast, Western Ghats districts like Kanyakumari, Nilgiris, and Coimbatore enjoy relative hydrological stability. This analysis examines water stress across Tamil Nadu's 38 districts, using 2024 as baseline and projecting to 2035 via a Random Forest model trained on hydrological, climatic, and socioeconomic data. It draws on WRI Aqueduct 3.0 indices, tracking withdrawals against renewable supply, plus escalation flags and risk scores. Key findings highlight accelerating distress. Five southern districts already exceed 80% stress. Chennai, the state's economic powerhouse and India's fourth-largest urban hub, tops escalation risk at 92.8%, fueled by rapid coastal growth, depletion of reservoirs like Poondi, Chembarambakkam, and Puzhal during weak monsoons, and the failure of Cooum and Adyar rivers as water sources. Projections under SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios are grim: 14 districts—42% of land area, 56% of population—will shift to higher stress categories by 2035. Drivers include North-East monsoon variability, Cauvery conflicts, groundwater exhaustion in central Tamil Nadu's hard-rock geology, inefficient flood irrigation in the Cauvery delta, Tiruppur's textile boom, and Chennai's water paradox amid economic rise. The study urges tailored interventions: precision irrigation and aquifer recharge in the Pandya south; urban demand curbs, desalination boosts for Chennai; watershed protection in Nilgiris and Kanyakumari transition zones. Without reforms, southern agriculture faces bankruptcy, and Chennai a "Day Zero" crisis by mid-2030s.
"Probabilistic Scoring of Water Stress A District-Level Analysis of Tamil Nadu’s Hydrological Challenges", JETNR - JOURNAL OF EMERGING TRENDS AND NOVEL RESEARCH (www.JETNR.org), ISSN:2984-9276, Vol.4, Issue 4, page no.a728-a741, April-2026, Available :https://rjpn.org/JETNR/papers/JETNR2604093.pdf
Volume 4
Issue 4,
April-2026
Pages : a728-a741
Paper Reg. ID: JETNR_233690
Published Paper Id: JETNR2604093
Downloads: 00048
Research Area: Science All
Country: Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
ISSN: 2984-9276 | IMPACT FACTOR: 9.87 Calculated By Google Scholar | ESTD YEAR: 2023
An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 9.87 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator
Publisher: RJPN (IJPublication) Janvi Wave
